Building bridges and nations

This morning there was a passing thought to get rid of my pot belly. I know what to do – eat less and exercise more. It seemed like a good idea at the time (it was around 7:30).

Predictably the thought was soon replaced by another but it reappeared at breakfast when I had a mug of hot water rather than coffee with milk and sugar. The hot water has now gone cold but the pot belly thought is back for at least as long as it takes to write this paragraph.

Aha - I sought evidence. I checked ‘pot belly’ on Google which turned up a Wikipedia article with a lot of medical jargon and statistics – my attention refused to stay focussed. There were some tough paragraphs – see the quote

“Central obesity is associated with glucose intolerance and dyslipidemia. Once dyslipidemia becomes a severe problem. An individual's abdominal cavity would generate elevated free fatty acid flux to the liver. The effect of abdominal adiposity does not just occur in those who are obese but also affects people who are non-obese and it also contributes to insulin sensitivity.” Wikipedia

This raises an interesting point about planning for the future. Where does the intention come from? Do we really use hard evidence? Can we even understand it? Theory and practice seem to go in different directions.

The simplistic logic of traditional economists suggests that people should and do carefully consider all the relevant evidence in advance of decision making. There is now a widely recognised planning cycle as is shown in the picture. It works really well for engineers who build physical bridges

But if the problem is for example an approaching pack of predators (eg of lions or of imperialists) you don’t want to spend time considering your options – never mind the logic - let the instincts and intuitions take over. Trust the unconscious – it can entertain more than seven facts at time, it processes in parallel, and it has been hard wired by millions of years of evolution to successfully cope with life’s problems – and this was without economists.

This morning there was another passing thought - about Scottish Independence. I have gathered some of the literature but I have not seriously addressed it. I made my decision a long time ago – it was a pure gut reaction. Building a nation is not like building a bridge. The facts do not speak for themselves.